The Stablecoin Volume Illusion: Trillions On-Chain, Billions in Real Payments

Stablecoins are moving trillions of dollars across public blockchains, but the numbers risk giving a misleading impression of their penetration into mainstream payments.

The Stablecoin Volume Illusion

Visa’s Onchain Analytics platform recently recorded $4.6tn of stablecoin transaction volume over 30 days. After filtering activity including bots, intra-exchange transfers and other potentially inflationary transactions, that figure fell to $1.1tn.

Yet even “adjusted” blockchain activity should not be confused with payments. Research from McKinsey and Artemis Analytics estimates genuine stablecoin payments amounted to approximately $390bn during 2025 — just 0.02 per cent of global payment flows.

Why On-Chain Volume Is Not Payment Volume

The discrepancy reflects the unusual economics of blockchain activity.

Stablecoins underpin cryptocurrency trading, decentralised finance, exchange liquidity and transfers between wallets belonging to the same organisations. Smart contracts can also generate several blockchain movements from a single economic action.

All are legitimate uses of stablecoins, but they do not necessarily represent somebody buying goods, paying an invoice or sending a remittance.

McKinsey therefore argues that headline blockchain volumes should be treated as a starting point rather than evidence of payments adoption. Its analysis identified B2B payments as the largest genuine category, accounting for $226bn of the estimated $390bn total. Consumer-to-business payments contributed another $76bn.

The Opportunity Remains Significant

None of this means stablecoins are irrelevant to payments.

Their ability to transfer value continuously, programme transactions and potentially reduce friction in cross-border settlement provides genuine advantages. Stablecoin payment volumes are also expanding from a relatively small base.

But infrastructure remains critical. Moving dollars onto a blockchain does not eliminate the need for regulated institutions capable of accepting fiat currency, managing reserves, providing liquidity and converting digital dollars into local currencies.

For cross-border payments in particular, the blockchain may replace or simplify part of the transaction chain without necessarily removing banking relationships at either end.

That helps explain why banks, card networks and payment providers are increasingly investing in stablecoin infrastructure rather than assuming traditional payment systems will simply be displaced.

Stablecoins Must Cross the Fiat Bridge

The more interesting question is therefore not whether stablecoins can generate enormous blockchain transaction volumes. They demonstrably can.

It is whether they can convert that activity into economically meaningful payments at sufficient scale to challenge established infrastructure.

McKinsey’s analysis provides a useful reality check: stablecoins are potentially important new payment rails, but their current share of global payments remains tiny.

The industry should consequently be wary of measuring adoption using trillion-dollar blockchain headlines.

For banks, PSPs and corporate treasury teams, the opportunity lies in building the infrastructure connecting tokenised money with the regulated financial system — including custody, compliance, liquidity, redemption and foreign exchange.

Stablecoins may ultimately transform cross-border payments. But before they can bypass traditional banking infrastructure, they remain surprisingly dependent upon it.