Global e-commerce growth is increasingly top-heavy

Global e-commerce has returned to robust expansion, surpassing the $5 trillion mark in 2026 and adding $421 billion in net new revenues year on year.

Yet beneath the headline growth lies a more revealing structural shift: an increasingly concentrated market in which a handful of countries and platforms account for a disproportionate share of incremental gains.

While global online retail is projected to approach $6.9 trillion in 2026, equivalent to more than one fifth of total retail sales, expansion is far from evenly distributed.

Instead, growth is being driven by a narrow cluster of geographies and digital marketplaces whose scale advantages are compounding over time.

China’s Structural Dominance in Absolute Growth

No market illustrates this concentration more clearly than China.

Greater China contributed $175 billion of net new e-commerce revenues in 2026, representing 42% of global growth. With total online sales exceeding $2.2 trillion — and broader estimates placing 2025 revenues closer to $3.45 trillion — the country has crossed a structural threshold.

E-commerce penetration now stands at roughly 47%, approaching saturation in major urban centres.

China’s lead is not merely a function of population size. Its ecosystem integrates social commerce, livestream retail and mobile payments into a seamless consumer journey.

Approximately 92% of online shoppers transact via smartphone, reinforcing a mobile-first retail architecture that many Western markets are still attempting to emulate.

By contrast, the United States, while firmly the second-largest market, contributed $81 billion in net growth — 19% of the global increase.

Total US online sales stand at around $1.7 trillion, with penetration of 15.8%. This relatively modest online share suggests substantial headroom, particularly in under-digitised categories such as grocery and business-to-business procurement.

The United Kingdom, the third-largest contributor to incremental growth, added $12 billion and now accounts for more than $195 billion in annual online sales.

Notably, China, the US and the UK together generate 64% of global e-commerce growth — a striking illustration of how concentrated expansion has become.

Platform Power: Growth Beyond Borders

At platform level, the picture is marginally more diversified but still heavily skewed.

Three players — Pinduoduo, TikTok (via Douyin in China) and Amazon — collectively account for 39% of new global e-commerce revenues.

Induoduo alone added $71 billion in new revenues, representing 17% of global net growth. Its group-buying model and algorithmic merchandising have proven particularly effective in price-sensitive segments.

TikTok (Douyin) followed with $51 billion in additional revenues, demonstrating the accelerating monetisation of social video commerce.

Amazon, meanwhile, contributed $41 billion, underlining the continued resilience of the marketplace model in mature economies.

Unlike country-level concentration, however, platform dominance is slightly more diffuse. While leading marketplaces capture outsized growth, competitive intensity remains high, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, where local champions continue to scale rapidly.

Emerging Markets: High Growth, Low Base

India and Indonesia highlight the next frontier.

India’s e-commerce penetration remains close to 5%, yet annual growth rates exceed 17%. Smartphone-led adoption — with 88% of shoppers transacting via mobile — is accelerating digital retail beyond metropolitan centres.

Indonesia, with penetration nearing 32% and annual growth above 20%, exemplifies Southeast Asia’s leapfrogging of traditional retail infrastructure.

These markets, however, still contribute a smaller share of absolute global growth than China or the US. High percentage expansion does not yet translate into dominant net additions in dollar terms.

Implications for Payments and Policy

For payments providers, the implications are material. High-concentration markets offer scale efficiencies but intensify competition.

Two markets — China and the United States — now account for 64% of global e-commerce revenues. Regulatory decisions, trade policy and cross-border friction in these jurisdictions therefore carry disproportionate systemic weight.

Moreover, mobile commerce — now responsible for nearly 60% of global online sales and over 90% in China — demands infrastructure optimised for real-time authorisation, embedded finance and frictionless authentication.

The structural lesson is clear. Global e-commerce is expanding, but its growth engine is narrow.

A small group of countries and platforms is shaping not only revenue distribution but also the future architecture of digital payments. For merchants, acquirers and policymakers alike, understanding that concentration is no longer optional — it is strategic necessity.