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The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing for its proposed digital euro to enter the payments market at a scale that could fundamentally alter Europe’s financial landscape.
ECB’s digital euro plans show ambition
Internal documents reveal the bank’s ambition for the central bank digital currency (CBDC) to be able to process more than 50 billion transactions annually from day one.
A figure that would rival, and potentially displace, a significant share of existing card-based payments.
50 Billion Transactions
According to officials familiar with the planning, the ECB’s technical specifications envision a system capable of handling 50.5 billion transactions a year.
While this number is not presented as a forecast, the scale of the infrastructure highlights how seriously policymakers view the potential uptake of the new currency.
For comparison, eurozone consumers used payment cards 84.6 billion times last year, generating €3.2 trillion in value.
If cash use continues to decline at the current pace, the total could rise to 125 billion card transactions by 2028 — the earliest plausible launch date for the digital euro.
At its projected capacity, the digital euro could account for around 40 per cent of that market, effectively diverting a large slice of revenues currently earned by card issuers and international payment processors.
Payments Sovereignty
The motivation behind this strategy extends beyond consumer choice.
European policymakers have long voiced concerns about the region’s dependence on US card schemes, notably Visa and Mastercard, which handle the majority of euro area transactions.
In fact, more than two-thirds of card payments in the eurozone are settled through international networks, with over half of EU member states relying exclusively on non-European infrastructure.
The ECB sees the digital euro as a means to enhance Europe’s strategic autonomy in payments, while simultaneously preventing revenue “leakage” overseas.
Potential Disruption
The potential disruption is already prompting unease among private-sector players.
Payments Europe, an industry group, has warned that offering basic digital euro services at little or no cost could destabilise the economics of card payments.
Banks, too, are wary. If consumers choose to hold significant balances in ECB-backed digital wallets, commercial institutions could face reduced deposits, limiting their capacity to lend to households and businesses.
The ECB has been cautious in its public communications, repeatedly stressing that it does not intend to displace private payment providers.
However, the scale of the infrastructure being prepared suggests that competition may be inevitable.
For consumers, broad adoption could deliver cheaper transactions and more resilient infrastructure.
For Europe, it represents a chance to establish sovereignty in a market long dominated by foreign networks.
Whether the public is willing to embrace a central bank digital currency at such scale remains the biggest unknown.
What is clear is that the ECB is positioning the digital euro not as a niche experiment, but as a cornerstone of the continent’s payments future.
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