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Artificial intelligence is no longer a peripheral tool in retail. It is becoming the interface through which consumers discover products, compare options and complete purchases.
From curiosity to commercial force
What began as conversational experimentation is evolving into what many now describe as agentic commerce: AI systems that not only inform decisions but actively shape and execute them.
For payments professionals and merchants alike, the implications are material.
Traffic flows are shifting, conversion dynamics are changing and the economics of customer acquisition are being quietly rewritten.
AI-Generated Retail Traffic
Today, retail websites still receive the majority of their traffic from conventional organic search engines.
Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude account for a comparatively modest share of visits. Yet forward-looking traffic projections suggest this balance will not hold.
Analysts anticipate that by 2028 AI-generated retail traffic will overtake traditional organic search as the primary source of online retail visits.
By 2029, LLM-driven channels could account for close to two-thirds of total traffic. This is not merely incremental growth; it represents a structural realignment in how consumers initiate and complete shopping journeys.
Unlike traditional search, which requires users to sift through ranked links, AI systems synthesise options, refine preferences and present curated outcomes.
In doing so, they compress the path from intent to transaction — a development with profound implications for checkout design, embedded finance and payment orchestration.
Conversion Rates: Where AI Already Leads
If traffic dominance remains prospective, conversion performance is already measurable. Since late 2025, AI-driven referrals have consistently outperformed non-AI traffic in converting visitors into buyers.
The differential is not marginal and, crucially, it appears to be widening.
ChatGPT, in particular, has demonstrated conversion rates exceeding those of direct traffic, paid search, organic listings, email campaigns, display advertising and social media referrals.
Reported conversion levels of approximately 11.4 per cent materially exceed most conventional retail benchmarks.
The underlying logic is straightforward. AI-led interactions are inherently high-intent. Users typically arrive with defined objectives, and the AI interface narrows choices before the consumer ever lands on a merchant’s site.
By the time payment credentials are entered, much of the decision friction has already been resolved.
A New Economics of Referral Fees
Beyond traffic quality, agentic commerce introduces a compelling cost dimension.
Established US marketplaces — including Amazon, eBay and Walmart — routinely charge referral fees in the region of 15 to 15.8 per cent.
By contrast, OpenAI’s reported fee structure is less than half that level.
For merchants operating on tight margins, this differential is significant.
Lower referral costs combined with higher conversion rates alter customer acquisition economics.
Sellers gain greater pricing flexibility and can experiment more aggressively without surrendering a double-digit share of gross merchandise value.
From Supplement to Dominant Channel
Agentic commerce is not merely an adjunct to traditional e-commerce. It is rapidly evolving into a primary discovery and decision-making channel.
For the payments ecosystem — from acquirers to PSPs and issuers — the rise of AI-mediated transactions demands adaptation.
Those who recognise early that the interface layer is shifting from search engine to intelligent agent will be best positioned to capture the next wave of digital commerce growth.
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