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The payments industry is entering one of the most consequential periods of change in its modern history – and a lot rests on the rails it runs on.
Why the future belongs to many rails
Consumer habits, regulatory agendas, technological leaps and the entrance of new market players are reshaping how value moves at every level.
To make sense of this shifting terrain, Sheri Brandon, Global Head of New Business at Worldline Financial Services, offers a framework that explains both the drivers of today’s disruption and the strategic decisions that will shape tomorrow’s infrastructure.
Four forces reshaping the global payments landscape
Brandon identifies four forces that, acting together rather than in isolation, are determining how payment systems evolve.
Consumer behaviour is the most immediate: people now expect everything to be fast, intuitive and available with a swipe.
The demand for immediacy has forced banks and payment providers to rethink processes that once relied on batch settlement and delayed confirmation.
Regulation, often framed as an obstacle, has repeatedly been the engine of progress. SEPA, for example, standardised cross-border euro payments and demonstrated the power of a coordinated regulatory approach to unlock efficiency and scale.
Today’s regulatory agenda — from instant payments mandates to digital identity frameworks — is having a similar catalytic effect.
Technological progress, meanwhile, is creating a proliferation of new rails, from blockchain-based systems to artificial intelligence-driven payment initiation.
Finally, the rise of Big Tech and fintech challengers has upended the competitive hierarchy. Banks no longer own the end-to-end payment journey; the field is now shared with digital wallets, super apps and platform providers.
Together, these forces have created an ecosystem in which multiple payment options coexist — and in which consumer preference ultimately determines which survive.
The consumer as the final arbiter
While industry narratives often focus on innovation or regulatory pressure, adoption is still driven by end users.
New payment methods commonly begin in peer-to-peer contexts, progress into e-commerce, and only then reach the point of broad merchant acceptance.
This diffusion pattern favours brands with deep consumer trust, such as Apple, Google and PayPal.
Government-backed systems can accelerate adoption even further.
The rapid take-up of UPI in India and PIX in Brazil shows what happens when regulators and consumers align around convenience, cost and usability.
As Brandon notes: “In the end, it’s up to the consumer.” No payment rail thrives unless it solves a tangible problem in everyday life.
Coexistence, not conquest, will define the next era
Rather than a zero-sum battle for supremacy, the emerging landscape points to coexistence.
Cards, buoyed by decades of trust and built-in protections, remain dominant — especially as they transition into tokenised, wallet-native credentials.
At the same time, account-to-account payments, open banking-powered flows, stablecoins and central bank digital currencies are gaining meaningful traction.
Each rail brings distinct strengths: cards offer chargebacks and fraud protections; A2A delivers lower cost and immediacy; stablecoins promise global portability; CBDCs may embed monetary policy directly into digital cash.
Brandon suggests new rails could capture 10–15% of the market in specific segments, not replacing cards but complementing them.
Sovereignty stakes rise as stablecoins expand
The geopolitical dimension of payments is sharpening.
Dollar-backed stablecoins are scaling rapidly, encouraged by regulatory clarity in the United States. Europe risks diminishing its influence if euro-denominated alternatives and the Digital Euro fail to keep pace.
The question is no longer purely commercial — it touches on the EU’s long-term financial autonomy.
Preparing for a multi-rail reality
Banks, fintechs and merchants must adapt now. Experimentation — from issuing stablecoins to integrating instant-payments rails — is essential.
Collaboration between incumbents and fintech innovators will be the defining success factor, blending scale with speed.
A further frontier looms: digital identity. European regulators are pushing towards identity wallets that could integrate authentication and payments into a unified layer.
This shift could make payments almost invisible, embedding them seamlessly into digital experiences.
A future defined by diversity
The next chapter of payments will not produce a single winner. Multiple rails will coexist, each optimised for different use cases and consumer needs.
Success will belong to organisations capable of navigating this complexity while keeping the consumer — and their demand for simplicity — at the centre of every decision.
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